Day 2 - Gasquet v Verdasco , ATP Monte Carlo

11:07 lay Gasquet 272.72 @1.55 one break down
12:30 This tennis trading sometimes reminds me so much of punting !
I did have many opportunities to get out for a profit, and even in the second set to get out at no loss. But I chose to hold on. Fingers crossed that the 2nd set tie-break goes my way.
Either way, I think I will concentrate on pre-race trading on the horses, and come back on 1st May.

13;05 update - Verdasco wins tie break and breaks in 3rd set
Layed Verdasco @1.47 and 1.31 for +142.87 Gasquet and +140.70 Verdasco :-)

Day 2 - Ferrer v Simon, ATP Monte Carlo

09:29 Lay Ferrer after first break point risking 15% @1.15(150.00)
Wipe-out !

Day 1 update

Well the tennis bet met the target alright :-)

I took a more detailed look at the horses but decided (so far) to keep the powder dry.

2:20 Wetherby Frankie Figg currently 3.35
2:20 Wetherby Oakapple Express currently 4.00
Crappy race. My Pre-Race Trading system I have been trialing says Oakland is a back now @3.95. NO BET

2:30 Windsor Ten Down currently 2.16
Value may have gone now @1.98, but should lead and might be a back to lay in-play candidiate. NO BET

2:40 Wolverhampton Magic Amour currently 2.66
Now @2.50. Was tempted to Lay this in the contest but the opposition aren't up to much. macktavish @14.00 could lead, and almost made it as a (low stakes) back to lay in-play selection - (Note - OLBG's JC Superstar has tipped it). NO BET


2:50 Wetherby Duke Orsino currently 1.80
2:50 Wetherby Snake Rave currently 5.60
NAP LAYED Duke Orsino on OLBG. Snake Rave has a nice low weight and could be ready for Ho Jo - PRaT system says BACK it at its current price @5.30. Mr Twins has at least been chasing before, and ran its best race last time. NO (real money) BET

3:15 Wolverhampton Blue Sky Thinking currently 2.36
Only just won its last two and dropped in grade for the hat-trick bid. My NB Lay on OLBG.
NO (real money) BET

Back to Tennis on TV in case soemthing there appeals.

Time to start

Okay the trading blog starts properly today,

After-timing will be inevitable as playing the Betfair screen takes preference over communication to you lot. But I will have MSN Messenger on if you want to talk live and find out what I am up to.

Bank = £1000
Target = 1% per day on average

Trade 1 Monte Carlo Masters Baghdatis v Mirnyi
Lay Marcos Baghdatis 1.3 £500.00
Back Marcos Baghdatis 1.68 £400.00 (after Mirnyi break first set )
Baghdatis +114.77 Mirnyi +£95.25

Other markets of interest;

Monte Carlo Masters (if games live on my TV)

Pre-event/in-play trading on these markets, decison taken between one hour before the race and first show from the course;

2:20 Wetherby Frankie Figg currently 3.35
2:20 Wetherby Oakapple Express currently 4.00
2:30 Windsor Ten Down currently 2.16
2:40 Wolverhampton Magic Amour currently 2.66
2:50 Wetherby Duke Orsino currently 1.80
2:50 Wetherby Snake Rave currently 5.60
3:15 Wolverhampton Blue Sky Thinking currently 2.36

Be Lucky :-)

Beware the pizza places at the doors of hell

On the road from Damrak to the Red Light District of Amsterdam just after the well lit (but touristy) Grasshoppers. Theres two pizza places guarding the gates of hell and their job seems to be making you regret entering them. You've been warned.

On the train journey in to the city I saw a group of young Americans around 18 years old. Now that has to be a trip of a lifetime for them! At 18 in the States you aren't even allowed to drink and they are on their way to hell/heaven (you choose). One of them will probably become President - but did he inhale? :-)

The meet up with the OLBG boys went well - but as normal "What goes on in Amsterdam stays in Amsterdam".



The 3 Wise men follow the shining star to the Inn.... (Coopsy has the light top on, I am in the middle and then Burners). Not quite sure how The Hand from the Adams Family got into the picture but it was a strange evening !







But we did find a Golden Egg Football Strategy - if you see me getting up to go the toilet during a game LAY NO NEXT GOAL and get rich quick :-)

OLBG Lays and real money lays yesterday also went well. The highlight being the first who came second at 1.32 :-)

Todays real money (and contest) Lays are;

3:00 Ludlow Lay Nippy Des Mottes (NB) @ 2.75 Ground won't suit, poor value

3:20 Wincanton Lay Nicki Boy (NAP) @ 2.87 poor value, tough race

3:30 Ludlow Lay My Immortal @ 2.37 poor value


I'm going away for the weekend. So see you next Tuesday ;-)

I want to break free !

Sorry for not posting much, I am still chained to my desk in my "proper job" :-( but not long to go - 6 working days. Once I break free on Friday 13th April I will post every day-ish.

Thanks to the 12 people who viewed the blog yesterday. My Google Analytics add-on even tells me where you are based - great stuff. Thanks to thatsadonkey for the comment, more appreciated !

Nice to see that I am top of the OLBG Layers table again after, fingers crossed/subject to confirmation, I won it last month. BUT I am wise enough to know that the only way is down !

Nice to see BF Billybob team mates also doing well with the Maltese Falcon sgb topping our league with some stunning selections. But Aquarius - the wheels on your laying bus have fallen off mate - you need a holiday.

Also nice to see the flat maiden races back again. Getting stuck into those horses that are big on reputation and small on actual achievements can be profitable. There be a few heavily punted odds-on losers in these races this month, hopefully I picked the right 2 of them today.

I am meeting up with a couple of OLBGers tomorrow night in Amsterdam, and it could be a late one. La Vie En Proost has been mentioned . Shame that Natalie with her Union Jack bikini probably won't be there ;-)

OLBG Lays
2:30 Weth Artic Ghost BF 3.10 NAP wide open race and no reason to suggest this can achieve the double
2:45 South Catterina Ballerina BF 1.52 - 4 runner maiden - expect the unexpected.
4:05 Folk Thabaat BF 1.40 NB -maiden
4:40 Folk HMV BF 3.40 going for a double, take it on.

Real Money bets
Risking 3% on the NAP and another 3% on the NB.

A Sweaty 100k Accumulator

Most OLBG regulars know I hate accumulators but theres one guy who loves them and is sweating on a life changing win, Mr Swashbuckler.



He stands to win 100k if the last 4 legs of his 12fold goes in. Should he lay off now or let it ride?

4 legs left;
INTER MILAN=5/6 SERIE A - current BF lay price 1.01 :-)
BARCELONA= 5/13 LA LIGA - current BF lay price 1.35 :-)
MORTON =6/5 SCOTTISH DIV 2 - current BF lay price 1.35 :-)
AND FINALLY TOTTENHAM=13/8 WITHOUT TOP 4 - current BF lay price 3.35 :-)


I will watch with interest?

Sunday 25th - the joys of spring

We remembered to turn the clocks back and headed for the beach nice and early. Beautiful weather for March. I love the sound of those razorfish shells breaking as you walk on them. We also identifed the dolphins we saw last weekend (in the North Sea!!) -they were "Harbour Porpoise" a type of whale growing up to 2 meters longhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbour_Porpoise .

OLBG went well yesterday as did real money betting (2 bets only !! layed eng ht/ft @3.10 and traded the unders in the CZ v Germany game backing @1.85 and laying @1.60)

Hopefully my ironic/sarcastic comment on the OLBG footie thread yesterday put everybody off the "banker" treble of Engalnd, Holland and France. Only 1 goal in those three games. Banker with a capital double-U :-) There is no such thing as an easy international anymore and no such thing as a rich patriotic English punter.

I did an OLBG tip on Malta to win the Asian Handicap +1.75 away to Moldova. They led 0-1 until the 85th minute when Moldova equalised. Reason for the OLBG tip? My mate in Malta was telling me how a bet on Moldova @1.44 was "free money". In that phrase lies a goldmine. Lay the bet anytime someone tells you its free money !! Might start doing it with real money. I actually saw Malta's last game on TV, away to Austria and they played well, taking an early lead - eventually losing 3-1 I think. The TV was in a bar in Vienna which made the shock goal even more satisfying.

OLBG tips today started well with Craven winning the 3:10 Taunton and the fav losing @1.66. Scary doing a win and lay in the same race but I've made a profit the last 3 times I've done it (insert fingers crossed icon).

Feedback welcome, as are promises of cash for my OLBG charity trading challenge !!

Its been a funny old year

I let the blog go silent for almost an entire year - shame on me. But I am back fulltime from April 13th almost a year and a day after my last post here.

What have I learnt in the last year;

- every successful long-term strategy I have found includes an element of trading

- betfair historical data is useful but a pain in the harse to analyse. Once the event finishes it is difficult to track how the prices changed over time, and what volumes were matched. I spent weeks trying to get to grips with the Premier League HT and scores markets. Data size and lack of good time related data was a real problem.

- that my discipline is strong. I have been very selective and its working.

What will the next year bring?

- well I am going to start with a charity challenge in conjunction with OLBG. More details to follow, but hopefully I will raise a few quid for a worthy cause and educate a few others. Lets hope its more red nose day than red face day ! I am hoping that by including a charity element the Gambling Gods smile down upon me. Contributions from OLBG members are expected, especially if they want advance notice of what bets I have done rather than an end of day summary. Ant & Co have already promised 200 quid - cheers guys.

- hopefully I can avoid the four word stuff WORK. The rat race is for rats not intelligent people.

- second income streams are vital. I have in the past been critical of tipsters charging for their tips so I am not sure how I will solve this moral dilemna. Maybe just offering 1-2-1 sessions to people wanting to improve their gambling will be sellable, but I know you can't teach discipline and thats the vital element to long-term success. Maybe affiliate links, but most would be pro's are already fully loaded with new accounts. Maybe I should write my second book? My first was a limited edition of one, as a gift to The Love Goddess.

Anyway folks, feedback welcome.