Discipline & Staking Plans
Posted a few months ago at http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic30_5641.html
I saw that a thread had been opened for Systems, but Discipline and Staking Plans are as important in my view.
1. Start by working out what is your betting target?
If you are betting for a hobby then your target might be to lose no more than 10% of your wages per month. You've have set aside a certain percent of your disposable income for your hobby, fine. The rest of this post will probably not be of interest to you. There are others who want to give up the daily grind and make money from sports betting. Difficult but it can be done with discipline and a good staking plan and a sprinkling of good fortune from The Gambling Gods. A good target is 3% profit on your bank per day. If achieved then your bank doubles every 24 days.
2. Strategies
See other thread, in case anyone reveals a good un with proven P/L figures. Or, perhaps they won't If you had a goose that layed golden eggs you would probably keep it to yourself. http://www.adrianmassey.com/ Fate of Favourites is worthy of a look. I would also point out that NO ONE has ever proved to me they can make long-term profits through taking a view and sticking with it, most money makers include an element of trading in their strategy. Tell me if I am wrong, but include stats please. Best to dummy run 5 or so strategies that you think might work and pick the best from those.
3. Discipline
What has helped me in the past;
- recording all bets. Regularly review performance, and improve.
- an excel sheet developed over the years. Automatically calculates max risk per bet/trade, calculates profit/commi$$ion, diverts 40% of any winning bet into a seperate (protected) bank, has an overview stats section (so I know that the required strike rate/% return is being achieved), and a cute graph with target/actual lines.
- openness with the wife/girlfriend or both. I have found it helps but understand others wouldn't dream of doing it.
- be very selective. Yesterday on OLBG I picked one horse per race but on Betfair I had one bet. An unusually quiet day though, on Saturday I had 6. Find out what works for you and stick with it.
I very rarely bet on football. I love the game but can't make it pay, so its dropped.
-OLBG is a god-send for the poor discipline punter. Use it to exorcise your gambling demons. OLBG is for Fun, Betfair is for Real.
4. Staking Plans
Depends on your strategy. I wouldn't risk more than 20% of my betting bank on any trade (in case Betfair crashes) or more than 3% on a punt (back or Lay). If you want to stay solvent then avoid the Martingale method of doubling up until a favourite wins - longest losing run, March 2005 was 48 consecutive losers. Sh1t happens
Be Lucky :-)
I saw that a thread had been opened for Systems, but Discipline and Staking Plans are as important in my view.
1. Start by working out what is your betting target?
If you are betting for a hobby then your target might be to lose no more than 10% of your wages per month. You've have set aside a certain percent of your disposable income for your hobby, fine. The rest of this post will probably not be of interest to you. There are others who want to give up the daily grind and make money from sports betting. Difficult but it can be done with discipline and a good staking plan and a sprinkling of good fortune from The Gambling Gods. A good target is 3% profit on your bank per day. If achieved then your bank doubles every 24 days.
2. Strategies
See other thread, in case anyone reveals a good un with proven P/L figures. Or, perhaps they won't If you had a goose that layed golden eggs you would probably keep it to yourself. http://www.adrianmassey.com/ Fate of Favourites is worthy of a look. I would also point out that NO ONE has ever proved to me they can make long-term profits through taking a view and sticking with it, most money makers include an element of trading in their strategy. Tell me if I am wrong, but include stats please. Best to dummy run 5 or so strategies that you think might work and pick the best from those.
3. Discipline
What has helped me in the past;
- recording all bets. Regularly review performance, and improve.
- an excel sheet developed over the years. Automatically calculates max risk per bet/trade, calculates profit/commi$$ion, diverts 40% of any winning bet into a seperate (protected) bank, has an overview stats section (so I know that the required strike rate/% return is being achieved), and a cute graph with target/actual lines.
- openness with the wife/girlfriend or both. I have found it helps but understand others wouldn't dream of doing it.
- be very selective. Yesterday on OLBG I picked one horse per race but on Betfair I had one bet. An unusually quiet day though, on Saturday I had 6. Find out what works for you and stick with it.
I very rarely bet on football. I love the game but can't make it pay, so its dropped.
-OLBG is a god-send for the poor discipline punter. Use it to exorcise your gambling demons. OLBG is for Fun, Betfair is for Real.
4. Staking Plans
Depends on your strategy. I wouldn't risk more than 20% of my betting bank on any trade (in case Betfair crashes) or more than 3% on a punt (back or Lay). If you want to stay solvent then avoid the Martingale method of doubling up until a favourite wins - longest losing run, March 2005 was 48 consecutive losers. Sh1t happens
Be Lucky :-)
posted by betfairalfie | 12:35 pm
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