The Thoughts of Chairman Alfie

Day 2 - Gasquet v Verdasco , ATP Monte Carlo

2007-04-17T11:07:00.000+01:00

11:07 lay Gasquet 272.72 @1.55 one break down
12:30 This tennis trading sometimes reminds me so much of punting !
I did have many opportunities to get out for a profit, and even in the second set to get out at no loss. But I chose to hold on. Fingers crossed that the 2nd set tie-break goes my way.
Either way, I think I will concentrate on pre-race trading on the horses, and come back on 1st May.

13;05 update - Verdasco wins tie break and breaks in 3rd set
Layed Verdasco @1.47 and 1.31 for +142.87 Gasquet and +140.70 Verdasco :-)

Day 2 - Ferrer v Simon, ATP Monte Carlo

2007-04-17T09:09:00.000+01:00

09:29 Lay Ferrer after first break point risking 15% @1.15(150.00)
Wipe-out !

Day 1 update

2007-04-16T12:52:00.000+01:00

Well the tennis bet met the target alright :-)

I took a more detailed look at the horses but decided (so far) to keep the powder dry.

2:20 Wetherby Frankie Figg currently 3.35
2:20 Wetherby Oakapple Express currently 4.00
Crappy race. My Pre-Race Trading system I have been trialing says Oakland is a back now @3.95. NO BET

2:30 Windsor Ten Down currently 2.16
Value may have gone now @1.98, but should lead and might be a back to lay in-play candidiate. NO BET

2:40 Wolverhampton Magic Amour currently 2.66
Now @2.50. Was tempted to Lay this in the contest but the opposition aren't up to much. macktavish @14.00 could lead, and almost made it as a (low stakes) back to lay in-play selection - (Note - OLBG's JC Superstar has tipped it). NO BET

2:50 Wetherby Duke Orsino currently 1.80
2:50 Wetherby Snake Rave currently 5.60
NAP LAYED Duke Orsino on OLBG. Snake Rave has a nice low weight and could be ready for Ho Jo - PRaT system says BACK it at its current price @5.30. Mr Twins has at least been chasing before, and ran its best race last time. NO (real money) BET

3:15 Wolverhampton Blue Sky Thinking currently 2.36
Only just won its last two and dropped in grade for the hat-trick bid. My NB Lay on OLBG.
NO (real money) BET

Back to Tennis on TV in case soemthing there appeals.

Time to start

2007-04-16T10:01:00.000+01:00

Okay the trading blog starts properly today,

After-timing will be inevitable as playing the Betfair screen takes preference over communication to you lot. But I will have MSN Messenger on if you want to talk live and find out what I am up to.

Bank = £1000
Target = 1% per day on average

Trade 1 Monte Carlo Masters Baghdatis v Mirnyi
Lay Marcos Baghdatis 1.3 £500.00
Back Marcos Baghdatis 1.68 £400.00 (after Mirnyi break first set )
Baghdatis +114.77 Mirnyi +£95.25

Other markets of interest;

Monte Carlo Masters (if games live on my TV)

Pre-event/in-play trading on these markets, decison taken between one hour before the race and first show from the course;

2:20 Wetherby Frankie Figg currently 3.35
2:20 Wetherby Oakapple Express currently 4.00
2:30 Windsor Ten Down currently 2.16
2:40 Wolverhampton Magic Amour currently 2.66
2:50 Wetherby Duke Orsino currently 1.80
2:50 Wetherby Snake Rave currently 5.60
3:15 Wolverhampton Blue Sky Thinking currently 2.36

Be Lucky :-)

Beware the pizza places at the doors of hell

2007-04-05T12:37:00.000+01:00

On the road from Damrak to the Red Light District of Amsterdam just after the well lit (but touristy) Grasshoppers. Theres two pizza places guarding the gates of hell and their job seems to be making you regret entering them. You've been warned.

On the train journey in to the city I saw a group of young Americans around 18 years old. Now that has to be a trip of a lifetime for them! At 18 in the States you aren't even allowed to drink and they are on their way to hell/heaven (you choose). One of them will probably become President - but did he inhale? :-)

The meet up with the OLBG boys went well - but as normal "What goes on in Amsterdam stays in Amsterdam".

The 3 Wise men follow the shining star to the Inn.... (Coopsy has the light top on, I am in the middle and then Burners). Not quite sure how The Hand from the Adams Family got into the picture but it was a strange evening !

But we did find a Golden Egg Football Strategy - if you see me getting up to go the toilet during a game LAY NO NEXT GOAL and get rich quick :-)

OLBG Lays and real money lays yesterday also went well. The highlight being the first who came second at 1.32 :-)

Todays real money (and contest) Lays are;

3:00 Ludlow Lay Nippy Des Mottes (NB) @ 2.75 Ground won't suit, poor value

3:20 Wincanton Lay Nicki Boy (NAP) @ 2.87 poor value, tough race

3:30 Ludlow Lay My Immortal @ 2.37 poor value

I'm going away for the weekend. So see you next Tuesday ;-)

I want to break free !

2007-04-03T13:52:00.000+01:00

Sorry for not posting much, I am still chained to my desk in my "proper job" :-( but not long to go - 6 working days. Once I break free on Friday 13th April I will post every day-ish.

Thanks to the 12 people who viewed the blog yesterday. My Google Analytics add-on even tells me where you are based - great stuff. Thanks to thatsadonkey for the comment, more appreciated !

Nice to see that I am top of the OLBG Layers table again after, fingers crossed/subject to confirmation, I won it last month. BUT I am wise enough to know that the only way is down !

Nice to see BF Billybob team mates also doing well with the Maltese Falcon sgb topping our league with some stunning selections. But Aquarius - the wheels on your laying bus have fallen off mate - you need a holiday.

Also nice to see the flat maiden races back again. Getting stuck into those horses that are big on reputation and small on actual achievements can be profitable. There be a few heavily punted odds-on losers in these races this month, hopefully I picked the right 2 of them today.

I am meeting up with a couple of OLBGers tomorrow night in Amsterdam, and it could be a late one. La Vie En Proost has been mentioned . Shame that Natalie with her Union Jack bikini probably won't be there ;-)

OLBG Lays
2:30 Weth Artic Ghost BF 3.10 NAP wide open race and no reason to suggest this can achieve the double
2:45 South Catterina Ballerina BF 1.52 - 4 runner maiden - expect the unexpected.
4:05 Folk Thabaat BF 1.40 NB -maiden
4:40 Folk HMV BF 3.40 going for a double, take it on.

Real Money bets
Risking 3% on the NAP and another 3% on the NB.

A Sweaty 100k Accumulator

2007-03-31T14:16:00.000+01:00

Most OLBG regulars know I hate accumulators but theres one guy who loves them and is sweating on a life changing win, Mr Swashbuckler.

He stands to win 100k if the last 4 legs of his 12fold goes in. Should he lay off now or let it ride?

4 legs left;
INTER MILAN=5/6 SERIE A - current BF lay price 1.01 :-)
BARCELONA= 5/13 LA LIGA - current BF lay price 1.35 :-)
MORTON =6/5 SCOTTISH DIV 2 - current BF lay price 1.35 :-)
AND FINALLY TOTTENHAM=13/8 WITHOUT TOP 4 - current BF lay price 3.35 :-)

I will watch with interest?

Sunday 25th - the joys of spring

2007-03-25T15:44:00.000+01:00

We remembered to turn the clocks back and headed for the beach nice and early. Beautiful weather for March. I love the sound of those razorfish shells breaking as you walk on them. We also identifed the dolphins we saw last weekend (in the North Sea!!) -they were "Harbour Porpoise" a type of whale growing up to 2 meters longhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbour_Porpoise .

OLBG went well yesterday as did real money betting (2 bets only !! layed eng ht/ft @3.10 and traded the unders in the CZ v Germany game backing @1.85 and laying @1.60)

Hopefully my ironic/sarcastic comment on the OLBG footie thread yesterday put everybody off the "banker" treble of Engalnd, Holland and France. Only 1 goal in those three games. Banker with a capital double-U :-) There is no such thing as an easy international anymore and no such thing as a rich patriotic English punter.

I did an OLBG tip on Malta to win the Asian Handicap +1.75 away to Moldova. They led 0-1 until the 85th minute when Moldova equalised. Reason for the OLBG tip? My mate in Malta was telling me how a bet on Moldova @1.44 was "free money". In that phrase lies a goldmine. Lay the bet anytime someone tells you its free money !! Might start doing it with real money. I actually saw Malta's last game on TV, away to Austria and they played well, taking an early lead - eventually losing 3-1 I think. The TV was in a bar in Vienna which made the shock goal even more satisfying.

OLBG tips today started well with Craven winning the 3:10 Taunton and the fav losing @1.66. Scary doing a win and lay in the same race but I've made a profit the last 3 times I've done it (insert fingers crossed icon).

Feedback welcome, as are promises of cash for my OLBG charity trading challenge !!

Its been a funny old year

2007-03-23T09:10:00.000Z

I let the blog go silent for almost an entire year - shame on me. But I am back fulltime from April 13th almost a year and a day after my last post here.

What have I learnt in the last year;

- every successful long-term strategy I have found includes an element of trading

- betfair historical data is useful but a pain in the harse to analyse. Once the event finishes it is difficult to track how the prices changed over time, and what volumes were matched. I spent weeks trying to get to grips with the Premier League HT and scores markets. Data size and lack of good time related data was a real problem.

- that my discipline is strong. I have been very selective and its working.

What will the next year bring?

- well I am going to start with a charity challenge in conjunction with OLBG. More details to follow, but hopefully I will raise a few quid for a worthy cause and educate a few others. Lets hope its more red nose day than red face day ! I am hoping that by including a charity element the Gambling Gods smile down upon me. Contributions from OLBG members are expected, especially if they want advance notice of what bets I have done rather than an end of day summary. Ant & Co have already promised 200 quid - cheers guys.

- hopefully I can avoid the four word stuff WORK. The rat race is for rats not intelligent people.

- second income streams are vital. I have in the past been critical of tipsters charging for their tips so I am not sure how I will solve this moral dilemna. Maybe just offering 1-2-1 sessions to people wanting to improve their gambling will be sellable, but I know you can't teach discipline and thats the vital element to long-term success. Maybe affiliate links, but most would be pro's are already fully loaded with new accounts. Maybe I should write my second book? My first was a limited edition of one, as a gift to The Love Goddess.

Anyway folks, feedback welcome.

Saint Valentines Day Massage

2006-02-12T09:30:00.000Z

Go on, she deserves it. Treat the lady(ies) you love to some pampering on Tuesday.

Other ideas for Saint VD pressies;

FIREPLACE DVD - great for the cold evenings when bugger all is on the TV. A 2 hour DVD of a roaring log fire. Something to cuddle up in front off.

TICKETS FOR A WEEKEND AWAY - Eurostar to Paris, stay in Versailles. The Trianon Palace Hotel, next to the Chateau, is exceptional. Bath robes that are worth getting arrested for stealing, a marble floored Roman Bath style swimming pool, suites/rooms that will blow you away, live Jazz in the bar of the adjacent and cheaper hotel The Trianon Residence. Take her to the Chien de Fume (The Smoking Dog) for sensational sea-food or a steak that you will remember for the rest of your lives, or to The Theatre restaurant for weird, but wonderful, dishes. Plus of course you can stroll round the Chateau to see how the other half used to live, the grounds are sensational. We are off there in April, the first trip there for the Love Goddess, my fifth. Or Brussels, if she likes beer.

Have fun. Treat her well.

PS - no more BotD tips from me. I'm making myself look a mug. I refuse to post details of my Golden Eggs and all that are left are average punts and trades that are, this month, showing a 27% loss. I couldn't have got yesterday's rugby trade more wrong, could I?

Feb 06 - Bet of the Day 4

2006-02-11T11:51:00.000Z

I will post it once I am matched but the first trade of the day will be in the France v Ireland 6 Nations game, live on BBC Kick Off 13:30 UK Time. The markets are a little quiet at present.

Getting a bit fed-up with those bad football punts of mine. Punting has never been a strong point for me especially in the round ball game !

1000 start bank now at 930
France v Ireland - Total Match Points
Under 44.5pts TRADE (20% risked) 190@2.30

LAY in-play 200@1.70 (hopefully matched first half, if we have a quiet start)

Gives +107.00 if it stays unders, +10 if it don't

Be Lucky

Feb 06 - Bet of the Day 3

2006-02-08T20:05:00.000Z

Lay Chelsea in the AH -1.5 5%@2.04

Posted just before the game starts, as I had trouble getting on the PC tonight. Bloody kids !

Improving Betting Discipline and P/L within 6 weeks

2006-02-08T13:33:00.000Z

I have tried to help others improve their gambling discipline in the past but not very successfully. Maybe discipline cannot be taught. Maybe you have it or you don’t. It reminds me very much of the need/desire to smoke. Every sensible person knows it is wrong. The very sensible never start smoking. The sensible smokers try and stop. Some succeed and never smoke again, others will just have a little puff when they have good times (parties) or bad times (funerals). Others will not even try to give up because it is too difficult, too boring, or not needed – mugs !

My suggestions to improve discipline and hopefully turn around poor P/L are;

First week - The advice I normally give punters wishing to reform is to stop betting immediately. Take a week off – NO BETS. Use you newly liberated free time to improve other things in your life. Love, Health, Family. Take a break then come back refreshed and eager to change your previously non-profitable gambling.

Second Week – set your target. 3% average profit per day is a useful place to start. Or you can change this into a “per bet/trade” target based on how many bets/trades on average you expect to have. Approx. 4 bets per day, with a 0.7% average profit target on each works well for me.

Set up a spreadsheet that tracks each bet/trade, that shows recommend stake/risk level based on fixed criteria (e.g. 20% of accumulated bank per trade or 5% per punt) and tracks the bet’s profit.

Have a column that tracks your accumulated betting P/L against your target. So after 30 bets I know that a 1000 GBP betting bank should have risen to 1233 GBP. You can also have a text column that tells you if you are “ABOVE” or “BELOW” target. Plus if you really want to be flash, set up a graph of bet numbers, tracked against actual and target P/L. Nothing is as nice to see as your P/L graph heading the right way – UPWARDS.

Spend the second week looking for ways to achieve your target but without betting. My advice is look for something that you enjoy, has convenient event times, that maybe you have TV access to, that you have special knowledge of, or access to special knowledge off (OLBG tipsters perhaps – follow the good ones, lay the bad ones?). Now find 5 strategies, that include an element of trading, that you feel has a good chance of meeting the target.

Spend the rest of the second week running the 5 strategies on separate spreadsheets using pretend money. This gets you used to using the sheets and, as you are not using real money, it improves discipline.

Third Week – Two weeks without betting? How did it go? Those smokers who try and give up the dreaded weed have nicotine patches to help. They haven’t invented “mug punter” patches yet ! Seriously though, if you can’t go two weeks without a bet then give up trying to improve your discipline and/or your P/L. You are doomed to a life of trying to make it work but always failing. \If you did make it through two weeks without a bet then well done. Treat yourself to a night out or weekend away with the money you saved.

At the start of the third week you need to review the spreadsheet and 5 strategies. Hopefully the 5 you picked have shown a small profit, and/or bags of potential. Maybe you have changed the detail of how to play them. Change them, dump them, pick new ones. Do what you have to and track the improvements through-out this third week.

Fourth week - Review the 5 strategies again at the start of the 4th week and ditch any that aren’t performing well enough. By now you should be familiar with spreadsheet use, your discipline is shit hot, and you have 2 or 3 strategies that show potential – now is the time to play for real money but with small stakes (10% of what you will end of using).

Restart the spreadsheets with a small but real betting bank. Try them for real. Observe their strength’s and weaknesses, look for improvements.

Fifth week – monitor your progress each week. Improve. If your strategies suck then dump them and start again with new ones. But DO NOT use full stakes until you have confidence in your strategies and more importantly in your discipline. If things are going well then treat yourself to a non-gambling treat. A meal with the family, a night out with the boys, a new (or second) flat screen monitor. Do something to reward yourself. Five weeks of disciplined gambling using 2 or 3 reasonable strategies is worthy of reward.

Sixth week – If at the end of this week you are still disciplined and still above target then increase the stakes to the full level.

Other practical advice;

- Strategies should be trialed for longer than 3 weeks, to become proven Golden Egg Laying Geese, but at least with discipline and regular reviews it will take you a long while to lose what you had previously been losing every month.
- Keep learning, keep improving. Some of the threads on the Betfair forum are very useful, especially for newly disciplined but inexperienced traders.
- Pre-race (low risk) trading can be profitable. This is where you combine backs and lays, with price swings, to gain a small profit before the race starts. But you will need to have extra special discipline levels to make it work. Due to its low profit margin, one mistake in this trading could easily wipe out all profits that have taken a month to build up.
- Once you have 2 or 3 strategies that work you can add to them. All new strategies should be tested as above, by a few weeks of paper trading, and a few weeks of small stakes.
- Very few people will share strategies that work otherwise their “edge”, advantage over the market, will reduce. If anyone tells you that they can make the game pay without trading, treat them with suspicion. It is very very tough to consistently beat the market without at least an element of trading. If they offer to sell you tips then ask yourself – “why are they selling the Goose That Lays Golden Eggs”?
- When selecting punting/trading strategies ask yourself why the strategies should work. Do they take advantage of market over-reactions? E.g. Consider a race with two joint favourites – the course/distance/trainer/jockey are all positives. One JF always runs from the front, leading, the other is always held up and makes the occasional mistake but normally recovers and finishes well – which would you rather back pre-race? I would rather back the lead horse and lay off all or some of the risk in-running, taking advantage of a market over-reaction on the lead horse. Going for a level green screen (equal win on all outcomes) or using trading to improve the effective odds on my view of the race outcome being correct.
- “one button’ betting software can be useful especially with their improved Betfair page refresh rates and the ability to download prices into excel. The downside is that mistakes can be costly. One click bets can also mean one click mistakes, some of which could cause a big dent in your P/L.
- Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. Gambling addiction is an illness, seek help. http://www.gamcare.org.uk/site.builder/helpline.html

That’s all I am prepared to say on this subject for free. Good luck.

Comments?

2006-02-07T11:01:00.000Z

Seems like my recent posts haven't had a box for comments. I've adjusted the settings so hopefully this post has a comments box.

I received a comment from Blackie about discipline and will do a write up that may help him and others.

All other comments welcomed.

Is There Anyone Out There?

2006-02-06T21:36:00.000Z

Let me have your comments. I get easily bored so if no one is reading I will soon give up.

I've sorted some old betfair forum files out so if anyone wants to post a question or two about betting strategies, staking or discipline let me know and I will answer with the help of some other wise old owls.

I've started work on Alfie's Guide To Lausanne. Its my favourite city but not many Brits go there. Maybe thats one of its attractions? Anyway its HQ of the International Olympic Committee and they know how to pick good venues. Its an hour away from Mont Blanc, 30 mins by boat from Evian which has a cracking casino. Its 40 minutes train ride away from Geneva airport, which is a short and cheap EasyJet flight away from Blighty. Despite being in Switzerland it has great night life. Well worth a visit.

I had the pleasure of a flight in to London City airport last week. That direct tube/DLR connection makes it so much better if your heading for the city. Very impressed that it eventually got it right after being open 18 years.

Feedback?

Feb 06 - Bet of the Day 2

2006-02-05T14:52:00.000Z

A BOTD blow out for me yesterday. But the 1.30 could have been layed off @1.08 first half. Who says trading don't pay !

Today's Betfair bet;

Chelsea v Liverpool
TOTAL GOALS
LAY 3 or more goals
(risking 5%) @2.60 (1% commission)

Guide to Amsterdam

2006-02-05T10:43:00.000Z

I know the city reasonably well and thought I would post a few tips for visitors;

The comedy club Boom Chicago have a good on-line guide to the city – read it first.
http://www.boomchicago.nl/Section/Real-Amsterdam/

Good advice about smoke, sex and bars/music venues. You can pick up a hard copy for free from their bar. It has a good map on the back, always handy when the canals all start looking the same at 2am after a smoky evening.

Boom Chicago is a good place to start an evening – American style comedy show, improv. Meals there are good and also you can’t get too out of it there as you are being entertained. So when you finish there at 11pm you are ready to “start” the evening, and your in Leidersplein with all its bars and music. Amsterdam stays open late but most weekenders never see much after 2am, stoned in a gutter.

Best coffee shop in my view is Homegrown Fantasy on Nieuwezijds near Dam Square, easy to walk straight past it but worth finding. Great atmosphere in there, loads of locals which is always a good sign. More expensive than most but well worth it. The Shiva and Super Skunk come highly recommended. You can also borrow puzzles and games from behind the alcohol free bar. Games always seem so much funnier after a smoke. http://www.greenhouse-effect.nl/index2.html

Dolphins Coffee Shop near Leidersplein is cool too. Bit small though but loads of bongs and watch out for the fish swimming in the lights behind the bar – yes they are real. http://www.coffeeshop.freeuk.com/Database/ShopsA/Dolphin.html

Paradiso is best music venue - near Leidersplein. http://www.paradiso.nl/index2.php

Or if you like blues then http://www.bourbonstreet.nl/index2.htm is also near Leidersplein.

http://www.heineken-music-hall.nl/english.php also another live music venue

Best sex show Casa Rosa - see Boom Chicago guide. Try and get a seat downstairs so you can be pulled up on stage for a bit of harmless fun.

Banana club? - never been but my mate nearly lost an eye there from a flying dildo. Boom guide says go when it is busy and seems to give it a good write up.

The strip club, La Vie En Rose behind the Oude Kerk (Dutch for old church) can be an excellent evening - it almost became my local lol. It was there that I first met Natalie the Union Jack Bikini clad angel. LVER has a difficult to find location. Walk from your Central Station until you come to Winston’s Hotel, then turn left, left and left again. You should be in a dingy looking alley with “windows” on your right. LVER is at the end of that alley. You pay to get in and the drinks aren’t cheap, especially after midnight – but it can be fun and it is fairly safe.

Teasers bar on Damrak has nice girls dancing and is a tame way to start an evening – but move on quickly there is much better places to go.

Casino http://www.hollandcasino.com/ can get very busy, but its okay. No free drinks though!

AMS even has a chippie is you miss dear old Blighty that much http://www.dinnersite.nl/restaurant/index.php?RN=19010&lng=en

Get your self a stripkaart for the buses and trams, strips of tickets. Best way to travel. The Kaarts are sold at tobacconists and at some hotel receptions.

If you fancy some football then try http://www.amsterdamarena.nl/index.php?pointer=1-2-2131 - they also do a stadium tour. It’s a short journey out of the centre by Metro. The metro takes bus stripkaarts tickets.

Best place for cigarettes seems to be the small shop in the alley besides C&As. Great selection.

You can hire a bike next to central station if your feeling energetic. Once you have the bike, go behind central station and catch a ferry straight across the river heading North. Once off the ferry keep going north following the large canal and within 10 minutes you will be in the countryside.

Or even a bike tour http://www.mikesbiketoursamsterdam.com/

As you come out of Central Station if you look to your right you will see a multi-storey bike “car-park’. The bicycle is much loved in dear old Amsterdam.

The diamond exhibitions can be fun. Ive been to Costers near the Rijks Museum. http://www.costerdiamonds.com/main.html It’s a free guide to diamonds, how they are graded, cut and polished. And at the end you get to hold a few. No sales pressure either.

Other useful websites;
http://underwateramsterdam.com/
http://www.amsterdam.info/

What Women Want To Hear?

2006-02-04T15:08:00.000Z

"I'm wrong.
I'm very sorry.
I Love You."

Works a treat.

Plus if you gift wrap a book as well she might be even happier. Kim Cattrell's book on the Female Orgasm is available at some of the cheaper London outlets at less than 6 quid. I saw it in the bookstore on Regent Street half way between Oxford Circus Tube Station and The Langham Hotel. Go get it boys ;-)

Feb 06 - Bet of the Day 1

2006-02-04T15:07:00.000Z

Wales to win +26.5 points 5%@1.30 LOST

Something for the weekend?

2006-01-31T19:37:00.000Z

Flying off to London on Wednesday to do some business and see some mates. So early to bed for me if I am to get the "red-eye" flight tomorrow. I won't be posting again until the weekend.

Saturday sees the start of the 6 Nations Rugby fest, where I normally do quite well. A wide open contest, none of the teams are in solid form. Wales v France is in the last round of games and is a mouth watering encounter, especially if they do end up having a trophy to play for, and the roof is shut.

Hopefully we get some nice handicap trades in the first round of matches. The popular BF handicap lines have been set at;

2006-02-04 13:30 : Ireland v Italy : Italy +25.5pts
2006-02-04 15:30 : England v Wales : Wales +16.5pts
2006-02-05 15:00 : Scotland v France : Scotland +14.5pts

Food for thought.

The Universe?

2006-01-29T15:43:00.000Z

I seem to have focussed on my betting a little too much so for you Universe fans, just how accurate is the Galaxy Song by Monthy Python?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A2163133

"And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space...
...'cos there's bugger-all down here on Earth"

Quite !

Chasing losses

2006-01-29T10:43:00.000Z

OUCH the cash machine Federer lets me down in the first set. I will resist the temptation to chase my 20% wipe-out and will probably have no more bets today. Looking through my spreadsheet its the first trading wipe-out of the month, so I mustn't grumble.

Mondays? I hate them betting wise. So probably no more activity from me until Tuesday. The target for the month has been met.

For those who are interested, these were my other 7 OLBG Bets Of The Day, posted on http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/forum33.html

Bet 7 CORRECT - Posted: 27 Jan 2006 13:09 Ile Facile EW @12/1 in the first at Fakenham for me. (or back on BF @16.00 and Lay off in-running, hopefully it leads)
Jockey N Fehily had 3/4 last time he was there. Better value than laying the over-hyped Fav in my view.
(Came 3rd, and more importantly went as low as 2.16 in-running. Fav unplaced )

Bet 6 INCORRECT - 15 Jan 2006 11:36Barneveld @1.48 looks massive to me based on the 3-dart averages

Bet 5 INCORRECT - 14 Jan 2006 13:52 My attempt at a BOTD five timer; 15:45 Carlisle - to be placed - Vandas Choice currently BF @3.20

Bet 4 CORRECT - Posted: 13 Jan 2006 11:53 Going for my BOTD 4 timer with 14:10 Some Touch but in a nice safe way.

Back pre-race 100@2.12 (price when posting, looks like it might start higher)(later comment - some lucky sod has 2.40 - Not me though.Its now gone into 2.00 with 15 mins before race starts.)

Lay in-running 110@1.73
For +31.70 if it wins, +10 if it don't (minus commission).
(it didn’t place, but the in-running Lay was matched)

Bet 3 CORRECT - Posted: 12 Jan 2006 17:44 Darts - I wouldn't dismiss Klaasen just yet. But it seems sensible to start the game with a bet on Hogan @4.00 on BF then Lay off for whatever balance of green you prefer if/once Hogan goes in front. (Klaasen wins but Hogan trades as low as 2.30 to make Alfie a Happy Bunny)

Bet 2 CORRECT (WON @ SP9/2) - Posted: 12 Jan 2006 13:42 Sthl 12th Jan - 14:40 - Back - Local Poet 1pt win/3pts place, BF currently @4.50 win/ @1.88 place only. Was as high as 5.90/2.34 before being punted in to 4.90/2.00

Bet 1 CORRECT - Posted: 11 Jan 2006 18:10 Blackburn v Man Utd Asian Handicap, Blackburn +0.5 @1.81 BF (= 1.80 after 1% commission deducted)

Sunday's Bet of the Day

2006-01-28T22:27:00.000Z

My bet of the day for Sunday is a trade on Federer to win 3-0 in the Australian Open Final at 8:30am UK time.

START BANK 1000
Back Federer NOW to win 3-0 200@2.14
Lay Federer to win 3-0 (in-play) 210@1.70

The three possible outcomes (after commission @5%) are;

EITHER
-200 if the 210@1.70 in-play Lay does not get matched, e.g. if Federer doesn't win first set (OUCH - stranger things have happened, but thats why its 20% of the bank not 100%)

OR
+ 76.95 if Federer wins 3-0

OR
+9.50 if Federer doesn't win 3-0

That will start the day nicely - with a little luck.

"The number one ranked internet tipster"

2006-01-28T07:10:00.000Z

I sorted out my short-list of Saturdays bets late last night using the ritual that has served me well for 2005. Pick 'em at night and sleep on 'em, to see if they still look sensible in the morning.

After doing my "work" I did a BBC site web search for "henry rix tip results" after seeing someone of that name get red-carded from the OLBG pricewise thread. The BBC search engine gives less bullshitty adverts than dear old Google.

Anyway, the search result brings up http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/forum who spookily enough are discussing the merits of a fellow OLBG tipster. I join and make my first post.

After reading the thread I learn two things;

a) Salford University now offer A Batchelor of Science Degree in Gambling Studies. Oh how I wish I was 18 again at times. Imagine starting your betting career in the 21st century, with Exchanges, Sky Sports and NO betting tax - bloody kids of today don't know they are born. When I was a boy we had smokey betting shops, 10% tax and the highlight of the week was the ITV7

b) I also find that someone in December 2005 awarded me title of "the number one ranked internet tipster". The world has gone mad or the opposition are crap, not sure which - maybe both. Its ironic that I am given such "praise' on the same day that I denounce tipsters as being doomed - theres irony for you. http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=6721&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0"

But madness or not, the price of my "Private Service" just got higher.

I shared a nugget of a bet with the OLBG folk on their "Friday bet of the day thread".

Posted: 27 Jan 2006 13:09 Post subject:

Ile Facile EW @12/1 in the first at Fakenham for me. (or back on BF @16.00 and Lay off in-running, hopefully it leads) Jockey N Fehily had 3/4 last time he was there. Better value than laying the over-hyped Fav in my view. Came 3rd, and more importantly went as low as 2.16 in-running. Fav unplaced (sadly the Fav fell and died. RIP)

I think that makes 7/9 profitable Bets of the Day for me since OLBG retirement (I will list them tomorrow). Maybe I will post my 10th later today, once the coffee has kicked in and the markets have warmed up a little.

(10AM UK TIME UPDATE - CHELTENHAM'S OFF AND SO AM I. NO BETS TODAY. JUST NOTICED THAT I'VE BEEN KNOCKED FROM THE TOP OF THE OLBG TABLE BY SOMEONE WHO HAD 500@22/1 NAP - BUT IT DOESN'T TEMPT ME TO COME OUT OF RETIREMENT LOL)

JKM left me a comment on the blog - cheers for that. Great to know that people are reading.

Good luck. Have a great Saturday.

Discipline & Staking Plans

2006-01-27T12:35:00.000Z

Posted a few months ago at http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic30_5641.html

I saw that a thread had been opened for Systems, but Discipline and Staking Plans are as important in my view.

1. Start by working out what is your betting target?
If you are betting for a hobby then your target might be to lose no more than 10% of your wages per month. You've have set aside a certain percent of your disposable income for your hobby, fine. The rest of this post will probably not be of interest to you. There are others who want to give up the daily grind and make money from sports betting. Difficult but it can be done with discipline and a good staking plan and a sprinkling of good fortune from The Gambling Gods. A good target is 3% profit on your bank per day. If achieved then your bank doubles every 24 days.

2. Strategies
See other thread, in case anyone reveals a good un with proven P/L figures. Or, perhaps they won't If you had a goose that layed golden eggs you would probably keep it to yourself. http://www.adrianmassey.com/ Fate of Favourites is worthy of a look. I would also point out that NO ONE has ever proved to me they can make long-term profits through taking a view and sticking with it, most money makers include an element of trading in their strategy. Tell me if I am wrong, but include stats please. Best to dummy run 5 or so strategies that you think might work and pick the best from those.

3. Discipline
What has helped me in the past;
- recording all bets. Regularly review performance, and improve.
- an excel sheet developed over the years. Automatically calculates max risk per bet/trade, calculates profit/commi$$ion, diverts 40% of any winning bet into a seperate (protected) bank, has an overview stats section (so I know that the required strike rate/% return is being achieved), and a cute graph with target/actual lines.
- openness with the wife/girlfriend or both. I have found it helps but understand others wouldn't dream of doing it.
- be very selective. Yesterday on OLBG I picked one horse per race but on Betfair I had one bet. An unusually quiet day though, on Saturday I had 6. Find out what works for you and stick with it.
I very rarely bet on football. I love the game but can't make it pay, so its dropped.
-OLBG is a god-send for the poor discipline punter. Use it to exorcise your gambling demons. OLBG is for Fun, Betfair is for Real.

4. Staking Plans
Depends on your strategy. I wouldn't risk more than 20% of my betting bank on any trade (in case Betfair crashes) or more than 3% on a punt (back or Lay). If you want to stay solvent then avoid the Martingale method of doubling up until a favourite wins - longest losing run, March 2005 was 48 consecutive losers. Sh1t happens

Be Lucky :-)

Welcome

2006-01-27T00:39:00.000Z

"Whats it all about Alfie?"

A great song, from an influential 60s movie starring Michael Caine, shame that it was sung by that irritaing scouser Cilla "wheres my hubcaps" Black. The movie, Alfie, was famous for being the first film where the actors actually spoke to the audience.

Why start a blog?

I actually started it under the influence of Absinth. Never a good time to start something creative, as interest may decline when you sober up.

I seemed to have gained a reputation amongst friends and fellow OLBGers as a man who knows what he is talking about, a man of principle and honesty. Got 'em fooled there, lol :-)

I won't be sharing any of my Golden Egg Laying Goose strategies on here, and probably won't talk about how the betting/investing is going, but will talk about what not to do. I learn't the hard way and maybe my advice can save others time and money on the road to gambling heaven. There is a limit to what free advice I will give, and if you want me to go over that limit you will have to pay for the Private Service, email me for details.

My initial intention is to have the occassional post commenting on the world at large and betting in particular. I will accept requests, so if there is a subject you want me to write about - email me. Also if you have any feedback at all, let me have it. It will be nice to know that someone out there in internet land is bothering to read my blog.

Be lucky :-)