Something for the weekend?

Flying off to London on Wednesday to do some business and see some mates. So early to bed for me if I am to get the "red-eye" flight tomorrow. I won't be posting again until the weekend.

Saturday sees the start of the 6 Nations Rugby fest, where I normally do quite well. A wide open contest, none of the teams are in solid form. Wales v France is in the last round of games and is a mouth watering encounter, especially if they do end up having a trophy to play for, and the roof is shut.

Hopefully we get some nice handicap trades in the first round of matches. The popular BF handicap lines have been set at;

2006-02-04 13:30 : Ireland v Italy : Italy +25.5pts
2006-02-04 15:30 : England v Wales : Wales +16.5pts
2006-02-05 15:00 : Scotland v France : Scotland +14.5pts

Food for thought.

The Universe?

I seem to have focussed on my betting a little too much so for you Universe fans, just how accurate is the Galaxy Song by Monthy Python?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A2163133

"And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space...
...'cos there's bugger-all down here on Earth"

Quite !

Chasing losses

OUCH the cash machine Federer lets me down in the first set. I will resist the temptation to chase my 20% wipe-out and will probably have no more bets today. Looking through my spreadsheet its the first trading wipe-out of the month, so I mustn't grumble.

Mondays? I hate them betting wise. So probably no more activity from me until Tuesday. The target for the month has been met.

For those who are interested, these were my other 7 OLBG Bets Of The Day, posted on http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/forum33.html


Bet 7 CORRECT - Posted: 27 Jan 2006 13:09 Ile Facile EW @12/1 in the first at Fakenham for me. (or back on BF @16.00 and Lay off in-running, hopefully it leads)
Jockey N Fehily had 3/4 last time he was there. Better value than laying the over-hyped Fav in my view.
(Came 3rd, and more importantly went as low as 2.16 in-running. Fav unplaced )


Bet 6 INCORRECT - 15 Jan 2006 11:36Barneveld @1.48 looks massive to me based on the 3-dart averages


Bet 5 INCORRECT - 14 Jan 2006 13:52 My attempt at a BOTD five timer; 15:45 Carlisle - to be placed - Vandas Choice currently BF @3.20


Bet 4 CORRECT - Posted: 13 Jan 2006 11:53 Going for my BOTD 4 timer with 14:10 Some Touch but in a nice safe way.

Back pre-race 100@2.12 (price when posting, looks like it might start higher)(later comment - some lucky sod has 2.40 - Not me though.Its now gone into 2.00 with 15 mins before race starts.)

Lay in-running 110@1.73
For +31.70 if it wins, +10 if it don't (minus commission).
(it didn’t place, but the in-running Lay was matched)


Bet 3 CORRECT - Posted: 12 Jan 2006 17:44 Darts - I wouldn't dismiss Klaasen just yet. But it seems sensible to start the game with a bet on Hogan @4.00 on BF then Lay off for whatever balance of green you prefer if/once Hogan goes in front. (Klaasen wins but Hogan trades as low as 2.30 to make Alfie a Happy Bunny)


Bet 2 CORRECT (WON @ SP9/2) - Posted: 12 Jan 2006 13:42 Sthl 12th Jan - 14:40 - Back - Local Poet 1pt win/3pts place, BF currently @4.50 win/ @1.88 place only. Was as high as 5.90/2.34 before being punted in to 4.90/2.00


Bet 1 CORRECT - Posted: 11 Jan 2006 18:10 Blackburn v Man Utd Asian Handicap, Blackburn +0.5 @1.81 BF (= 1.80 after 1% commission deducted)

Sunday's Bet of the Day

My bet of the day for Sunday is a trade on Federer to win 3-0 in the Australian Open Final at 8:30am UK time.

START BANK 1000
Back Federer NOW to win 3-0 200@2.14
Lay Federer to win 3-0 (in-play) 210@1.70

The three possible outcomes (after commission @5%) are;

EITHER
-200 if the 210@1.70 in-play Lay does not get matched, e.g. if Federer doesn't win first set (OUCH - stranger things have happened, but thats why its 20% of the bank not 100%)

OR
+ 76.95 if Federer wins 3-0

OR
+9.50 if Federer doesn't win 3-0

That will start the day nicely - with a little luck.

"The number one ranked internet tipster"

I sorted out my short-list of Saturdays bets late last night using the ritual that has served me well for 2005. Pick 'em at night and sleep on 'em, to see if they still look sensible in the morning.

After doing my "work" I did a BBC site web search for "henry rix tip results" after seeing someone of that name get red-carded from the OLBG pricewise thread. The BBC search engine gives less bullshitty adverts than dear old Google.

Anyway, the search result brings up http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/forum who spookily enough are discussing the merits of a fellow OLBG tipster. I join and make my first post.

After reading the thread I learn two things;

a) Salford University now offer A Batchelor of Science Degree in Gambling Studies. Oh how I wish I was 18 again at times. Imagine starting your betting career in the 21st century, with Exchanges, Sky Sports and NO betting tax - bloody kids of today don't know they are born. When I was a boy we had smokey betting shops, 10% tax and the highlight of the week was the ITV7

b) I also find that someone in December 2005 awarded me title of "the number one ranked internet tipster". The world has gone mad or the opposition are crap, not sure which - maybe both. Its ironic that I am given such "praise' on the same day that I denounce tipsters as being doomed - theres irony for you. http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=6721&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0"

But madness or not, the price of my "Private Service" just got higher.



I shared a nugget of a bet with the OLBG folk on their "Friday bet of the day thread".

Posted: 27 Jan 2006 13:09 Post subject:

Ile Facile EW @12/1 in the first at Fakenham for me. (or back on BF @16.00 and Lay off in-running, hopefully it leads) Jockey N Fehily had 3/4 last time he was there. Better value than laying the over-hyped Fav in my view. Came 3rd, and more importantly went as low as 2.16 in-running. Fav unplaced (sadly the Fav fell and died. RIP)

I think that makes 7/9 profitable Bets of the Day for me since OLBG retirement (I will list them tomorrow). Maybe I will post my 10th later today, once the coffee has kicked in and the markets have warmed up a little.


(10AM UK TIME UPDATE - CHELTENHAM'S OFF AND SO AM I. NO BETS TODAY. JUST NOTICED THAT I'VE BEEN KNOCKED FROM THE TOP OF THE OLBG TABLE BY SOMEONE WHO HAD 500@22/1 NAP - BUT IT DOESN'T TEMPT ME TO COME OUT OF RETIREMENT LOL)

JKM left me a comment on the blog - cheers for that. Great to know that people are reading.

Good luck. Have a great Saturday.

Discipline & Staking Plans

Posted a few months ago at http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic30_5641.html

I saw that a thread had been opened for Systems, but Discipline and Staking Plans are as important in my view.

1. Start by working out what is your betting target?
If you are betting for a hobby then your target might be to lose no more than 10% of your wages per month. You've have set aside a certain percent of your disposable income for your hobby, fine. The rest of this post will probably not be of interest to you. There are others who want to give up the daily grind and make money from sports betting. Difficult but it can be done with discipline and a good staking plan and a sprinkling of good fortune from The Gambling Gods. A good target is 3% profit on your bank per day. If achieved then your bank doubles every 24 days.

2. Strategies
See other thread, in case anyone reveals a good un with proven P/L figures. Or, perhaps they won't If you had a goose that layed golden eggs you would probably keep it to yourself. http://www.adrianmassey.com/ Fate of Favourites is worthy of a look. I would also point out that NO ONE has ever proved to me they can make long-term profits through taking a view and sticking with it, most money makers include an element of trading in their strategy. Tell me if I am wrong, but include stats please. Best to dummy run 5 or so strategies that you think might work and pick the best from those.

3. Discipline
What has helped me in the past;
- recording all bets. Regularly review performance, and improve.
- an excel sheet developed over the years. Automatically calculates max risk per bet/trade, calculates profit/commi$$ion, diverts 40% of any winning bet into a seperate (protected) bank, has an overview stats section (so I know that the required strike rate/% return is being achieved), and a cute graph with target/actual lines.
- openness with the wife/girlfriend or both. I have found it helps but understand others wouldn't dream of doing it.
- be very selective. Yesterday on OLBG I picked one horse per race but on Betfair I had one bet. An unusually quiet day though, on Saturday I had 6. Find out what works for you and stick with it.
I very rarely bet on football. I love the game but can't make it pay, so its dropped.
-OLBG is a god-send for the poor discipline punter. Use it to exorcise your gambling demons. OLBG is for Fun, Betfair is for Real.

4. Staking Plans
Depends on your strategy. I wouldn't risk more than 20% of my betting bank on any trade (in case Betfair crashes) or more than 3% on a punt (back or Lay). If you want to stay solvent then avoid the Martingale method of doubling up until a favourite wins - longest losing run, March 2005 was 48 consecutive losers. Sh1t happens

Be Lucky :-)

Welcome

"Whats it all about Alfie?"

A great song, from an influential 60s movie starring Michael Caine, shame that it was sung by that irritaing scouser Cilla "wheres my hubcaps" Black. The movie, Alfie, was famous for being the first film where the actors actually spoke to the audience.

Why start a blog?

I actually started it under the influence of Absinth. Never a good time to start something creative, as interest may decline when you sober up.

I seemed to have gained a reputation amongst friends and fellow OLBGers as a man who knows what he is talking about, a man of principle and honesty. Got 'em fooled there, lol :-)

I won't be sharing any of my Golden Egg Laying Goose strategies on here, and probably won't talk about how the betting/investing is going, but will talk about what not to do. I learn't the hard way and maybe my advice can save others time and money on the road to gambling heaven. There is a limit to what free advice I will give, and if you want me to go over that limit you will have to pay for the Private Service, email me for details.

My initial intention is to have the occassional post commenting on the world at large and betting in particular. I will accept requests, so if there is a subject you want me to write about - email me. Also if you have any feedback at all, let me have it. It will be nice to know that someone out there in internet land is bothering to read my blog.

Be lucky :-)